Welsh Barometer poll points to six party Senedd

The latest Welsh Barometer poll suggests that if the next Assembly election was held this week, Labour would get 29 of the 60 seats. That's one fewer than at present and two short of an overall majority. A total of six parties would be represented in the Senedd.

In terms of how people would vote, there's been a drift towards the biggest parties since the last poll in January. Labour and the Conservatives were the beneficiaries in the Westminster poll, published last night. In the Assembly, it's those two parties plus Plaid Cymru.

Everyone gets two votes in an Assembly election, one for a constituency AM, the other for a party regional list. These are the constituency figures, with the change since January in brackets:

• Labour 37% (+3%)
• Conservative 22% (+1%)
• Plaid Cymru 20% (+2%)
• UKIP 11% (-2%)
• Lib Dem 6% (-1%)
• Green 4% (-2%)
• Others 1% (no change)

The regional list figures show similar trends, though with a noticeable increase in support for Plaid Cymru and drop in support for UKIP.

• Labour 33% (+1%)
• Conservative 22% (+2%)
• Plaid Cymru 21% (+6%)
• UKIP 12% (-4%)
• Lib Dem 5% (-3%)
• Green 5% (-3%)
• Others 2% (no change)

Prof Roger Scully has analysed how these figures would translate into seats in the Senedd, on an even swing across Wales. Four party politics would become six, though the Lib Dems and Greens would only just make it to Cardiff Bay.

• Labour 29 seats
• Conservatives 13 seats
• Plaid Cymru 11 seats
• UKIP 5 seats
• Liberal Democrats 1 seat
• Greens 1 seat

The list voting system would deliver representation to UKIP and the Greens for the first time but it would be the majority built up by Kirsty Williams in Brecon and Radnorshire that would save the Welsh Lib Dem leader's seat.

YouGov polled 1,279 Welsh voters for ITV Wales and Cardiff University between March 5 and 9.

The first results from the latest Wales Barometer Poll have just been published on Sharp End. They show how people plan to vote in the Westminster election and indicate that both Labour and Conservatives have managed a modest increase in support since the last poll in January.

• Labour 39% (+2%)
• Conservative 25% (+2%)
• UKIP 14% (-2%)
• Plaid Cymru 10% (no change)
• Green 6% (-2%)
• Lib Dems 5% (-1%)
• Others 1% (no change)

Expert analysis by Prof Roger Scully of the Wales Governance Centre at Cardiff University suggests that Labour would win two additional seats -Cardiff North from the Conservatives and Cardiff Central from the Liberal Democrats- if there was an even swing across Wales. The Conservatives would take Brecon and Radnor from the Liberal Democrats. No other seats would change hands.

YouGov polled 1,279 Welsh voters for ITV Wales and Cardiff University between March 5 and 9. Voting intentions for the 2016 Assembly election will be published on Tuesday morning.