Scotland could 'face risks in oil, finance and pensions'

Scottish nationalists have severely underestimated the economic risks of independence, according to a centre-right think tank.

An independent Scotland would face three major risks in oil, finance and pensions, the Centre for Policy Studies said.

Its report, entitled Why Scots Should Say No, suggests that the North Sea revenue for the Scottish government would fall from £10.1 billion in 2011-12, but only £5.5bn in 2013-14, to £3.7bn in 2016-17, some £3.2 billion adrift of the £6.9 billion predicted by the Yes campaign.

The "probable" flight of a large proportion of the financial services sector from Scotland, as indicated by announcement by RBS, Lloyds, Clydesdale and Standard Life last week, could leave revenues of £47.7 billion in 2016-17, excluding North Sea oil, which is about £9.2 billion lower than the £57.3 billion forecast by nationalists, the report said.