Is 'Ex-Hurricane Bertha' heading toward the UK?

A Tropical Storm called Bertha, which was a hurricane on Monday but has now been downgraded, is currently situated off the east coast of the US. It's predicted 5 day forecast track takes it across the North Atlantic. But what does this mean for the UK?

The NOAA forecast area for Bertha suggests it will head north – staying offshore from the eastern coast of the US, before turning to track east across the Atlantic and nearing the UK by Sunday.

There are a few days to go, Bertha has a long way to travel, and there is still a high level of uncertainty about the exact postioning of what will then be an ex or post-tropical storm. The 'cone' forecast area on the image below, as it gets closer to the UK, becomes wider (indicating that there is greater scope for it's exact arrival position) and it could miss us altogether.

On Tuesday afternoon Tropical Storm Bertha had a wind speed of 60mph, was travelling at 20mph with maximun gusts of 70mph. As it journeys across the Atlantic, away from the very warm seas which drive its power, it is expected to lose intensity as it travels closer towards us.

While all forecast models suggest the storm will head in the general direction of UK and continental Europe, there remains a lot of uncertainty about exactly what it will do when it arrives. We won’t be seeing a ‘hurricane in Europe’, but there is a chance we could see a fairly active summer storm.

As Bertha grows older, weaker and closer we will be able to see it's potential for affecting the UK and Europe's weekend weather. It is certainly possible that heavy rain, strong winds and large waves could dominate Sundays forecast. We will of course keep you updated with the latest forecasts and warnings from the Met Office over the next few days.

You can also see the current location and forecast track for Bertha and other tropical storms on the Met Office StormTracker pages.