Catalan independence: What will happen next?

Spain has taken direct control of Catalonia after dissolving its Parliament and sacking the region's defiant separatist government.

Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy has also announced a regional election for December 21 and appealed for calm, insisting the rule of law would be restored in the region.

The central Government took control over the north-eastern region after the Spanish Senate approved proposals to trigger Article 155 of the constitution giving Madrid control over Barcelona, and allowing it to take "all measures necessary" to intervene directly in the running of an autonomous region in the event of a crisis.

With the two sides completely at odds over the region's future, the big question now is what will happen next?

Pro-independence supporters gathered outside Catalonia's parliament on Saturday. Credit: PA
  • What has happened?

Catalonia, in northeastern Spain, has a population of some 7.5 million people, its own language and generates about a fifth of the country's wealth.

Some Catalans want the region to become an independent nation and break away fromSpain, arguing it would be more prosperous governing itself.

A referendum was held on October 1, but had been declared by the Spanish government and the country's top court as illegal.

The poll descended into violence when national police used force in an attempt to stop people voting, leaving hundreds injured.

In the days since the referendum - which the Catalan government said was won by the "yes" vote - the region has threatened to proceed with the secession, although agreed to hold discussions with the Spanish government.

But on Friday, Catalonia's regional parliament passed a motion to establish a new republic independent of Spain - prompting unprecedented retaliation from the Senate in Madrid as it authorised the Spanish government to impose direct rule.

The "estelada" is the region's pro-independence flag. Credit: PA
  • What powers did Catalonia have previously?

Catalonia is one of Spain's 17 autonomous communities, which are governed according to the constitution and their own laws known as Statutes of Autonomy.

Catalonia, with one of the highest levels of self-rule, has its own parliament, government and president, as well as a range of powers over policies such as transportation and public safety.

Issues such as foreign affairs and the armed forces are the responsibility of the Spanish government.

In 2006 the region was given more devolved powers on things such as healthcare and education, but a move by Spain's Madrid-based Constitutional Court four years later to strike down some parts of the earlier agreement provoked anger among pro-independence Catalans.

The latest move would mark the first time in four decades of democratic rule in Spain that the national government will directly run the affairs of one of the country's semi-autonomous regions, a move that could fan the flames of the Catalan revolt.

Thousands of separatists celebrate the Catalan government's independence vote. Credit: PA
  • Why does Catalonia want independence now?

Many Catalans have long-believed the region's differences from the rest of Spain means they should break away, with the latest surge for independence beginning seven years ago.

Spain's recent financial crisis and ensuing austerity measures have contributed to a rise in support for secession. Some Catalans say they contribute more in taxes to the Spanish treasury than they actually get back.

  • What action can Madrid take?

Friday's vote in the Senate approved proposals to trigger Article 155 of the constitution, the first time this has happened, allowing the Government to take direct control of the region.

Following the vote, Spain's central Government moved quickly to take direct control of Catalonia, dissolving its Parliament and sacking the region's defiant separatist government.

After a special Cabinet meeting on Friday, Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy also called for a new regional election on December 21.

Friday's Senate vote also authorised him to take control of the region's finances, police and publicly owned media.

Mariano Rajoy has dissolved the Catalan parliament. Credit: AP

The Spanish government says the measures will be temporary and aimed at restoring order.

A spokesperson for the central government said the cabinet would seek to appeal to the Constitutional Court the declaration of independence that was passed Friday in the regional Catalan parliament.

There is also a potential legal threat to deposed Catalan President Carles Puigdemont and members of his cabinet.

A spokesman with Spain’s prosecutor office has said that the country’s top prosecutor will seek rebellion charges against those responsible for Friday's independence vote. The charges could reportedly be brought as early as Monday, with rebellion punishable with up to 25 years in prison under Spanish law.

  • Where does this leave the Catalan government?

Carles Puigdemont celebrated Friday's vote in the Catalan parliament. Credit: AP

There were jubilant scenes among pro-independence figures inside Catalonia’s parliament after it passed the motion to break away from Spain.

Addressing supporters afterwards, Mr Puigdemont called on fellow separatists to remain peaceful and to "keep to our values of pacifism and dignity".

"Today the Parliament fulfilled the long-desired and fought-for step and culminated the mandate of the ballot boxes," he said.

Friday's motion calls for an independence process that includes drafting new laws for Catalonia and opening negotiations "on equal footing" with Spanish authorities to establish cooperation.

However, the Spanish Constitutional Court is likely to declare the move illegal, as it did the disputed referendum.

The central Government has also imposed direct rule on the region and sacked Catalonia's Cabinet, meaning they will no longer be paid and they could be charged with usurping others' functions if they refuse to obey the Government.

Mr Rajoy has also called a regional election for December 21.

  • Will tensions spill over?

Police and independence supporters clashed during the referendum. Credit: AP

The firing of the regional leaders is likely to meet with fierce opposition in Catalonia, where thousands have been celebrating the independence declaration.

Leaders in Catalonia and Madrid called for calm in the moments after the independence and Article 155 votes.

On Friday night, rival rallies were held, but both sides were largely peaceful.

Mr Puigdemont urged fellow supporters of independence not to resort to violence and Mr Rajoy tweeted: "I call on all Spaniards to remain calm. The rule of law will restore legality to Catalonia."

However, tensions remain high in Catalonia following violence during the referendum.

The presence of thousands of Spanish Guardia Civil and national police officers in Catalonia - which has its own police force - is also the source of indignation. And it remains to be seen how the Catalan Mossos d’Esquadra will react to direct rule.

Friday's move by Madrid to impose direct rule is only likely to fan the flames of Catalan revolt.

ITV News Correspondent Emma Murphy, who is in Barcelona, reports:

  • Could there be international intervention?

So far, no country has expressed support for Catalan independence and there is unlikely to be a wave of new international backers following Friday's events.

The European Commission has insisted the issue is an internal matter for Spain to deal with.

Theresa May's spokesman said Britain will not recognise the Catalan parliament's declaration of independence.

On Friday, the US State Department backed Madrid's efforts to prevent Catalan independence, with spokeswoman Heather Nauert saying: “Catalonia is an integral part of Spain, and the United States supports the Spanish government’s constitutional measures to keep Spain strong and united.”

Donald Trump previously said Spain should stay united, branding the secession vote "foolish".

  • Could the two sides still negotiate?

Both sides have said further debate could take place on Saturday, but whether the leaders will meet over the negotiating table is another question.

The Catalan leader has called for negotiations in the past, but the Spanish government has so far refused the offer.

Madrid could potentially make concessions to Catalonia in a bid to appease separatists, but whether this will happen remains to be seen.

  • What happens next?

It is unclear whether Catalonia will be able to have independence from Spain any time soon, with the Spanish prime minister adamant that Spain will not be divided.

But if it does, it could have huge consequences.

Numerous questions will have to be answered, such as how Catalonia will take control of its foreign affairs and defence, and all the issues currently managed by central government.

There could also be the prospect of Catalonia no longer being part of the European Union, and having to find a new currency.

One thing is for sure, the political turmoil Spain currently finds itself in will not subside any time soon.