Theresa May to European Union: 'Be nice or it's commercial war'

So now the finishing touches have been put to Theresa May's speech on her preferred architecture for the UK's Brexit relationship and that with the rest of the world, I have learned that she will signal:

• We will be out of the customs union, the group of countries that dispense with border inspections of imports and exports

• May will "grudgingly" allow for a short period of "implementation" of any new trade deal (Downing Street's euphemism for the "transition" to full Brexit, desperately desired by many UK businesses, seen as toxic by Brexiteer ultras)

• The Prime Minister will make clear that the UK will default to slashing taxes and regulation if we don't agree an acceptable trade deal with the EU - in other words she will say "be nice or it's commercial war"

• Will Chancellor block customs union exit?

• Why May will say we are leaving the single market