Owen Smith may emerge as sole Jeremy Corbyn challenger today
There is a good chance we'll know tonight that Owen Smith is the sole candidate who'll be challenging Jeremy Corbyn for the leadership of the Labour Party.
How so? Well, within the party he is talking an amazingly confident talk about how far he is ahead, which in practice probably reflects that he is a bit ahead - and that then sucks in other undecided voters who just want the whole destabilising and demotivating process of choosing the preferred insurgent concluded as quickly as possible.
His breakthrough may well have come at the Parliamentary Labour Party hustings, when Yvette Cooper asked him and Angela Eagle whether they would withdraw their candidacy if the other ended up with more nominations from MPs.
Smith said he would, unequivocally. She prevaricated.
That made him look strong and confident, and her not.
Saying he would withdraw had the effect of reducing the risk he would have to withdraw.
So tactically he is playing a blinder. And since party leaders need to be adept at tactics as well as strategy, this tactical prowess is not irrelevant to deciding who's best to lead her majesty's opposition.
Anyway the two have now privately agreed there will be only one challenger to Corbyn. And there is a tacit understanding that whichever of them is the candidate, the other would be shadow chancellor - on the courageous assumption they actually oust Corbyn (which I would not bet on).
All that said, it's a stone-hearted observer who would not feel sorry for Eagle. She did the brave thing of initiating the contest by standing. And as a consequence she has been the victim of all that hate from Corbyn-loving Labour members.
But her self sacrifice is another reason why Labour MPs may feel Owen Smith stands a better chance of uniting this fractured party. Having come into the contest last, he is not as detested by the Corbynista ultras.
And there is one more important reason why he may emerge triumphant tonight. There is a deadline of tomorrow night for paying £25 and registering to vote in the leadership contest.
The 80% of Labour MPs estranged from Corbyn know that important to getting him out is persuading huge numbers that it is worth paying the £25 to back the challenger.
And it would probably be a lot easier to sell that £25 privilege if buyers knew which of the two potential challengers they were actually buying.
UPDATE 3.27pm
I said Smith was confident, but perhaps he exaggerated the strength of his hand.
According to a well-placed source, both he and Eagle have already won the minimum number of nominations they need - 51 - to be on ballot.
More significantly, the gap between them in MPs' votes cast is said to be small, immaterial.
So maybe I am wrong and this contest to be the sole challenger will run all the way till the formal close of the nominations process tomorrow, rather than being truncated today.
I will know more after 4.30pm.