Why Russia will still compete in Rio 2016 Olympics

  • Rio 2016
The Olympic rings fly alongside the Russian flag Credit: David Davies/PA Wire

Under current anti-doping laws, and yes, I am well aware how irrelevant they seem right now, if an athlete is caught doping, he or she will be banned from the next Olympic Games.

So logic dictates that if an entire nation is caught in a cycle of systematic cheating from top to bottom, potentially involving Government collusion, then surely its punishment should also be an Olympic ban?

That’s exactly what the World Anti-Doping Agency’s commission recommended this week but they have no powers to enforce their suggestion; that particular guillotine is operated by the International Association of Athletics Federations (IAAF and the International Olympic Committee (IOC).

So as they both digest the extensive evidence of destroyed samples, secret labs, Russian Special Service pressure and a “cash for cover-ups” culture, will both eventually conclude enough is enough?

Well the answer to that is yes, but also very definitely no.

Yes the IAAF, pushed by its new boss Sebastian Coe, will certainly approve sanctions against Russia. Coe, it should be noted, has done a remarkable U turn - softening his opinion that doping sinners should not be isolated but engaged.

But will those sanctions extend to a ban at the Rio games?

Initially it will sound like that, but in reality, of course there will be a full Russian team at the opening ceremony next August.

So how will these astonishing revelations play out?

By the end of this week, I expect the IAAF to move towards banning Russian athletes from all competition and at the same time, Russia will be warned that that won’t change until it gets its anti-doping house in order. This provisional suspension will then move towards a permanent ban once a full hearing his scheduled.

Friday’s decision will attract ‘Russia banned from Rio’ headlines and there will be much back-slapping, as the sport moves quickly to address an unprecedented crisis. The headlines won’t be inaccurate, just misleading. There is nothing the IOC, the IAAF and even WADA want less than Russia still on the side-lines next summer.

The Maracana stadium in Rio de Janeiro which will host the 2016 opening and closing cemermonies Credit: Nicole Becker/DPA

There are two reasons why: one is the public view, the other is not.

Those that run athletics know that if Russia is accepted back from Pariah status into competition again – it means it has fixed its anti-doping programme. In other words, it can be trusted again to run its own tests, analyse them, and their subsequent conclusions can be believed. The deceit and the corruption is behind them. The culture has changed. Shots of vodka all round. This is what the sport wants.

But the real reason is that the very same people who have applauded this investigation, cannot afford for Russia to be excluded in Rio. It is bad for business and, incredible though it may sound today, it is bad for track and field’s reputation.

Why? Well, if Russia is outlawed the politics come into play – big fat Geopolitics.

Russian President Vladimir Putin could call on other countries to boycott the Games if Russia is banned Credit: Anthony Devlin/PA Wire

Vladimir Putin will look to his many allies to boycott Brazil and no doubt he would succeed. At a stroke, we’re left with a fractured, damaged Games. If that happens the whole Olympic movement is threatened with extinction.

Perhaps it’s even worse than that – maybe if we get that far it is already irretrievably damaged. And that is something no one close to track and field wants – however sick in the stomach Russia’s deception makes them.