Plane bombing would signal escalation in IS ambitions

If so-called Islamic State did blow up a passenger jet over Egypt, the group already considered to pose the greatest threat to our national security will have signalled an escalation in its ambitions.

Until now, its priority has been to extend its territory – while Al-Qaida and its affiliates have been more interested in "spectaculars" on foreign targets.

Although ISIL says it intends to “conquer Rome”, its ambitions have been regional rather than global. And by using the power of social media, it has seemed more interested in inspiring attacks than directing them.

If the early analysis of the Egypt crash is true, ISIL’s aims, ambitions and methods might have just changed.

The aviation bomb was the most feared terrorist tactic in the years after the 9/11 attacks of 2001. There were other attempts at it – one to bring down an Israeli aircraft, another to blow up transatlantic jets.

Airport security has been heightened since the 9/11 attacks. Credit: PA

The perceived threat from the air has shrunk in recent years, but it hasn’t disappeared.

Although ‘lone wolf’ attacks are considered to be far more likely, mass casualty aviation bombs are thought to be an enduring ambition of al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula. Last December, the Yemen-based group published what it claimed to be a guide to smuggling an undetectable bomb onto a jet.

But AQAP was thought be on the skids – it was ISIL that was in the ascendancy.

So what would the ramifications of an ISIL attack on a Russian plane be?

For one, a more complex, more worrying picture for international security.

Analysts have been worried by the combination of ISIL’s huge support, and AQ’s spectacular methods.

IS has claimed responsibility for the Russian jet crash. Credit: Reuters

Of course, it’s possible that claims of ISIL’s involvement have been overstated. There are still many uncertainties about what happened in Egypt last week. The Russians and Egyptians have downplayed the conclusions that Britain and America have come close to drawing.

And one important point being raised by those sceptical of the British analysis: if ISIL is responsible for the Egypt attack, it would, in so many ways, be out of character.