Poll: Labour ahead in key Tory-held battleground seats

If this was any normal election, Labour would be pretty delighted with our latest poll results.

In the top 50 Conservative held Labour targets seats that we polled, there's a swing of 3.5 % away from the Tories.

That would be enough, if translated into seats, for Labour to take 44 out of the 50 - so that's places like Carlisle, Ipswich and Keighley turning red.

That would be a good night's work for Labour - it might even take them close to the longed for majority.

But this election of course, is nothing like those we have seen before.

Even if Labour can count on a tally like that in the bank from the Tories, most national polls predict that as fast as they pick up seats in England they will be losing them in Scotland, at the hands of the SNP, which means Labour and the Tories could be back to a near draw.

The Tories are hoping the SNP will damage Labour's prospects in another way too.

Their tactic of claiming that Labour would be the lapdog of the SNP in the event of a hung parliament seems to be gaining traction in these marginal seats.

Three in five voters that we polled are worried about the SNP having too much influence if they supported a Labour government.

And around half go further and say it's important to keep the SNP out of the UK wide government.

The Tories will be hoping that fear will convert some of the waverers - and there are still plenty of them.

More than a quarter of people in these seats saying they may yet change their mind.

This election could still throw up something totally unexpected.