Opinion poll sceptic Nigel Farage faces mixed results for Ukip

Ukip Leader Nigel Farage during canvassing in Sandwich, Kent, as he continues his campaign trail for the South Thanet seat Credit: PA

Nigel Farage is no fan of opinion polls. Half a dozen times during this election campaign, he has told me that he has no interest in the findings of those polling companies which he believes underestimate his support.

But even as a polling sceptic, he might smile at the recent figures from ICM, Survation and Opinium, which have all suggested that support for Ukip has stabilised or even grown over the last few days.

What’s changed? Well, not much. There have been no new announcements about policy during the week since Ukip unveiled its manifesto - much of which we had heard before anyway.

One detectable change: Farage seems to be going harder on the ‘English’ rhetoric, as the role of Scottish nationalists becomes more important.

“We’ve had enough of shovelling all that money over Hadrian’s Wall”, he said last week - and he has repeated that rhetoric several times since.

Nigel Farage is going harder on 'English' rhetoric Credit: PA

Maybe it’s the news agenda elsewhere that has moved the polls. The migrant ship disaster in the Mediterranean has lead to a great deal of discussion about the European Union and immigration - Ukip’s two big issues.

So there’s no surprise that the other parties are gunning for Ukip’s share of the vote.

According to the Daily Telegraph today, David Cameron is specifically urging Farage’s supporters to vote Conservative, saying they can prevent a “toxic tie-up” between Labour and the SNP.

But there are some polls that Farage might not like quite so much.

A ComRes/ITV News poll - just out - reveals that in 10 target seats, Ukip remains behind Labour and the Conservatives.

While other party leaders have toured the country, most of Farage’s energy has gone into winning some of these constituencies. And if he’s unsuccessful in one of them, South Thanet, Farage will stand down as party leader.

And here’s another figure which, in the long term, might be just as concerning for Ukip: A new poll shows that 45 percent of people want Britain to remain inside the European Union, compared to the 35 percent who, like Ukip, want a ‘Brexit'.