Saudi Arabia's new king faces formidable challenges
When he’s written about, or spoken of, in the Arab world, the Saudi king is not initially referred to as “His Royal Highness,” but as "Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques".
It underlines the point that Saudi Arabia is the home of Islam with Mecca and Medina at its core.
That fact gives the Saudi monarch unique influence and moral authority. Oil wealth gives him clout. His kingdom sits on about a quarter of the world’s known reserves.
Ibn Saud, the founding father of modern Saudi Arabia, died in 1953. King Abdullah, who has just died at the age of 90, was the fifth of his sons to rule.
The new King Salman is the sixth. He has apparently named Muqrin as crown prince, so presumably he’ll be the seventh. Muqrin, who is already 69, is the youngest son of Ibn Saud. So when he passes the king will have to come from the next generation.
Somewhere down the line a succession crisis is looming. Eventually it seems, seven sons of Ibn Saud will have ruled, but which of their sons will be entitled to succeed?
That’s a problem down the line for the House of Saud. It’s problems today include Islamic State on the northern border and al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula on the southern border, in Yemen.
Both radical groups espouse a pure form of Wahhabism, which has its roots in Saudi Arabia.
Fifteen of the nineteen 9/11 hijackers were Saudis. Most of the suicide attacks being carried out by IS in Iraq and Syria are Saudis. Saudi Arabia is at war with al-Qaeda and IS.
Saudi Arabian jets are part of the alliance carrying out strikes against IS targets in Iraq and yet there are worrying reports about some Saudi pilots being reluctant to drop bombs.
Earlier this month an IS suicide attack on the Saudi border killed three Saudi soldiers. One of them was a general, who rarely visited the frontier. Had IS been tipped of?
IS and al-Qaeda would dearly like to foment some kind of Wahhabi-inspired uprising inside Saudi Arabia. But at the minute the House of Saud’s grip on power looks strong. The internal security and intelligence apparatus is formidable.
King Abdullah is being heralded as a reformer. He paved the way for women to vote in municipal elections. He also allowed women to be appointed to the Shura Council, a consultative but relatively powerless forum comparable to our House of Lords.
But these are small steps and in a sense they epitomize the contradictions that define Saudi Arabia.
In the centre of Riyadh is an opulent shopping mall in which every designer label you can imagine is available.
Half a mile away is Martyr’s Square, where they behead and flog enemies of the state.
Saudi Arabia has been a important ally for the West. They have kept the oil flowing and we have lapped it up.
They buy our war machines and when Saddam Hussein was in our crosshairs,he was in theirs too.
But while Saudi Arabia is a friend of the western democracies, it can’t emulate them. There’s no such thing as the opposition in a kingdom that loathes political movements.
The Saudis were delighted to see – and no doubt had a hand in – the toppling of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt. The Egyptian economy and the rule of the former General Sisi is underpinned by Saudi money.
Saudi Arabia is the champion of Sunni Islam and therefore a bitter enemy of Shia Iran. There has been considerable unease in Riyadh about Washington’s conciliatory dealings with Iran. The Saudis don’t trust Tehran.
They maintain great influence in mainly sunni Pakistan, not least because they can buy nukes off the shelf in Islamabad should the Iranians ever develop the bomb.
When ITV News was allowed into Saudi Arabia two years ago, I described the kingdom as ‘our mysterious ally.”
There’s much about the country we don’t understand and don’t like. But it is a powerful ally and that’s why complimentary statements about King Abdullah were quick to emanate from Downing Street and the White House today.
The Western Powers will be hoping that King Salman personified continuity and stability. And if the House of Saud is to survive, he undoubtedly does.