Cameron urges economic caution in unstable market
What is David Cameron warning us about in his newspaper article today?
Is it simply the 'red warning lights' on the 'dashboard of the global economy' to which the Prime Minister refers?
Or is it that the Chancellor's mini-budget in December, the Autumn Statement, will be much harder for voters to digest than previously anticipated?
Mr Cameron is right to point out that the UK economy is not immune from a slowdown elsewhere: the Eurozone is dangerously close to recession; Japan has gone back into an economic downturn; and the emerging economies (often referred to as the BRIC countries) are also slowing down.
But the Autumn Statement, on December 5, is the Chancellor's last before the election - and it is likely to contain details of further painful cuts.
The Conservative political message is this: now is not the time to hand the keys back to Labour so voters should stick with us if they want the economy to keep growing and the deficit to keep falling.
However, some of the problems to which Mr Cameron refers, relate to the shape of the economic recovery in the UK.
There are more people employed - but much of the new work is in low wage jobs.
That has pushed up working age benefits.
The Institute for Fiscal Studies also points out today how a fall in spending on Job Seekers Allowance (£1.3bn lower than 2010) has been more than wiped out by higher spending in housing benefit (£1bn higher) and more payments in Disability Living Allowance (£1.6bn higher).
There has also been much higher spending on pensioners compared to 2010.
The IFS says spending on state pensions, pension credit and pensioner benefits (like the winter fuel payment) will be £5bn higher than in 2010 (each pensioner gets an average of £500 a year more).
What does it all that mean? It means George Osborne will have to make additional spending cuts in December just to stay on track.
And that may explain the cautious tone David Cameron is taking today about the prospect for the economic recovery.