Brussels is officially neutral (But desperate for a Scottish ‘No’)

Brussels cannot ignore the vote. Credit: Andrew Milligan/PA Wire/Press Association Images

It is not just London that suffered a rude awakening with “that” YouGov poll putting the Yes campaign within touching distance of victory.

This is an issue that Brussels thought it could ignore: there would be a vote, but how nice that it was all being sorted out amicably, and anyway it will all go away when the ‘Nos' triumph and Europe can get back to more important matters.

Suddenly it is not just Westminster that is facing a major constitutional crisis.

The EU wasn’t designed for this, and if the Scots do decide to leave the UK then Brussels too is deep in uncharted waters.

The next few years would be dominated by two major issues: what to do about Scottish membership of the EU, and how to prevent the separatist contagion from spreading across the continent.

The Treaty of Rome did not envisage a scenario like this.

If the Scots do decide to leave the UK then Brussels too is deep in uncharted waters. Credit: Hills Have Ayes

On the one hand Alex Salmond is absolutely right to assert that there is no provision for citizens of the EU to lose that citizenship against their will.

On the other, the rules are quite clear that if you break away from a member state you lose your EU membership and have to go back to the beginning of the application process.

With goodwill, it is possible to imagine a scenario in which Scotland could be readmitted within the time taken to negotiate independence. But there is no sign of goodwill.

In fact the rhetoric from Spain is being ratcheted up every day.

Polls remain on a knife edge. Credit: PA Wire

Today its Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy described the referendum as “a torpedo aimed at the European spirit”.

Yesterday his Europe minister spoke of a delay of at least five years before Scottish readmission, and even then only on the proviso that Edinburgh commit to joining the Euro, joining Schengen and losing its share of the UK budget rebate.

And these are not empty threats, because Spain (like each of the 28 members) has an absolute right of veto over the admission of any new member.

The vote has ignited separatist sentiment across the continent. Credit: Andrew Milligan/PA Wire/Press Association Images

Spain, of course, has one very good reason to wield that veto, and it’s called Catalonia.

On Friday the Catalan Government in Barcelona is to pass a law authorising a non-binding referendum (a ‘public consultation’ they are calling it) on separation from Spain, scheduled for November 9.

The timing is no accident.

Just five days ago 1.8 million (!) people were on the streets of Barcelona demanding to be given the same opportunity as Scotland to decide their future.

Madrid is defiantly resisting allowing any such vote, but if Scotland were to vote ‘Yes’ on Thursday the pressure may soon become irresistible.

On the very day that Scotland votes, Flemish separatists are to rally on the streets of Brussels demanding the break-up of Belgium.

On the day of the vote, Flemish separatists are to rally on the streets of Brussels.

You can see what is happening here.

The simple fact of five million or so Scots being given this vote has ignited separatist sentiment across the continent, and that’s before we even know the result.

There are powerful centripetal forces in Northern Italy and in Hungary too, plus disputed borders across much of Eastern Europe.

There are powerful forces at work on Europe's disputed borders. Credit: Danny Lawson/PA Wire.

Once the process of redrawing Europe’s post-war frontiers begins, people in Brussels wonder where it might end.

And that is before you consider the validation given to separatists in Crimea and Eastern Ukraine who would take a Scottish ‘Yes’ as a powerful justification for their own pseudo-referendums held earlier this year.

So if powerful figures in the EU tell you that they are neutral about the result on September 18, don’t believe a word of it.